Executive Summary
President-Elect Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine, though not officially disclosed, can be inferred from statements by key advisors and campaign rhetoric. The plan is likely based on a carrots-and-sticks approach put forward by Lieutenant General (retired) Keith Kellogg, and is focused on imposing a ceasefire, freezing the frontline, and making military aid conditional to compel negotiations. While this approach prioritizes rapid conflict resolution, it raises questions about strategic stability, NATO cohesion, and Ukraine’s sovereignty. Its success depends on the enforceability of agreements and the personal dynamics among stakeholders, posing significant implications for American investors navigating Ukraine’s uncertain geopolitical landscape.