This intelligence assessment evaluates the scope, objectives, and potential outcomes of Russia’s ongoing offensive in northeastern Ukraine (Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv oblasts), launched in early 2025. Russia’s offensive comes amidst Ukraine’s highly successful Operation Spiderweb, a coordinated stand-in drone attack on five Russian strategic air bases, which damaged at least 23 aircraft, including bombers responsible for firing cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities. This contrast highlights a hard strategic reality: while Ukraine can strike deep and degrade Russia’s long-range capabilities through operations like Spiderweb, it still faces the grinding pressure of Russian ground offensives. The Sumy push shows that Russia can sustain serious setbacks and yet continue to generate offensive momentum along multiple axes.
Drawing on OSINT, deployment data, and field reporting, our briefing outlines key Russian objectives, plausible scenarios, and strategic implications for Ukrainian defense planning, particularly in light of potential redeployments from the Donbas