Executive Summary
Negotiations—not battlefield gains—are the most likely path to war termination, temporary or otherwise, in 2025. Early U.S.-Ukraine talks are expected in Q1, with President Trump and Special Envoy Gen. Keith Kellogg pushing for a ceasefire as the medium term objective.
Russia is advancing in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia but is unlikely to achieve its minimal territorial objectives using military force in 2025. Ukraine is reinforcing defenses while preparing counteroffensives or an offensive of opportunity. Manpower challenges persist for both sides, being the main decisive factor for the war in Ukraine in 2025.
In the war on infrastructure, Russia’s air campaign against Ukraine has failed to cause a power grid collapse, while Ukraine will continue escalating strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities for the rest of the year.